The rhythms that move Dubai real estate.

Each project is walked forward through its remaining build stages at the rate observed for its use class and scheme size, calibrated from 815 completed inspection histories. Rather than a single delivery date, each project carries a window — the range between its fast and slow completion cases — and its units are distributed across that window. Intensity is confidence: it falls with distance to completion, with the age of the last inspection, and with how few readings sit behind the project’s build rate. Projects under 5% complete are excluded; there is no basis to extrapolate. Unclassified use classes are grouped with residential, consistent with the project spine. The band shows the total if every project ran fast against the total if every project ran slow — the model’s own scenarios, not a statistical standard deviation. It widens with distance because the evidence thins.